East-X-Net's e-Magasin om Østeuropa - 10 årlige udgivelser - Maj 2005 - Nr. 66
Af Udenrigsminister Per Stig Møller
Ukraine på vej mod højstatus blandt
Øst Magasinet med mail Khodorkovskij-dom ventes den 16. maj Nu skulle det være sikkert og vist. Efter flere udsættelser kan Mikhail
Khodorkovskij, grundlæggeren af det russiske olieselskab Jukos, forvente at
få sin dom den 16. maj. Han står anklaget for bedrageri og
skatteunddragelse og risikerer op til 10 års fængsel, hvis han bliver
kendt skyldig. Anklageren forlanger en maksimumstraf til ham og hans
forretningspartner Platon Lebedev, der sandsynligvis også får sin dom den
16. maj. Men nogen iagttagere mener, at de begge vil få en mildere straf
på måske fem års fængsel, ikke mindst fordi der er stor international
opmærksomhed omkring sagen. Bl.a. sagde USA's udenrigsminister Condoleezza
Rice under et besøg i Moskva for nylig, at dommen vil være en prøve på
det russiske juridiske systems uafhængighed. Med den bemærkning har hun
også antydet, at netop de russiske domstole er kendt for ikke at være
uafhængige. Selv om de er det ifølge lovgivningen, viser praksis fra mange
sager, at dommeren lytter til, hvilke strømninger der kommer fra Kreml og
afsiger sin dom derefter. Derfor vil den dom, som Khodorkovskij får, mere
end noget andet afspejle Kremls mening om sagen.
Modtag Øst Magasinet med mail
Khodorkovskij-dom ventes den 16. maj
Nu skulle det være sikkert og vist. Efter flere udsættelser kan Mikhail Khodorkovskij, grundlæggeren af det russiske olieselskab Jukos, forvente at få sin dom den 16. maj. Han står anklaget for bedrageri og skatteunddragelse og risikerer op til 10 års fængsel, hvis han bliver kendt skyldig. Anklageren forlanger en maksimumstraf til ham og hans forretningspartner Platon Lebedev, der sandsynligvis også får sin dom den 16. maj. Men nogen iagttagere mener, at de begge vil få en mildere straf på måske fem års fængsel, ikke mindst fordi der er stor international opmærksomhed omkring sagen. Bl.a. sagde USA's udenrigsminister Condoleezza Rice under et besøg i Moskva for nylig, at dommen vil være en prøve på det russiske juridiske systems uafhængighed. Med den bemærkning har hun også antydet, at netop de russiske domstole er kendt for ikke at være uafhængige. Selv om de er det ifølge lovgivningen, viser praksis fra mange sager, at dommeren lytter til, hvilke strømninger der kommer fra Kreml og afsiger sin dom derefter. Derfor vil den dom, som Khodorkovskij får, mere end noget andet afspejle Kremls mening om sagen.
Carlsberg køber ind i Rusland
Danske blomster til Rusland igen
Polen - EU's nye servicenation
Polen har optimale forudsætninger for at tiltrække danske investeringer
i servicesektoren til landet. Det sætter Danmarks Eksportråd i Polen fokus
på, når det sammen med HTS, Danske Bank og advokatfirmaet Peter Nielsen
& Partnere afholder konference om servicesektoren og mulighederne i
Polen den 12. maj 2004 på Radisson SAS Koldingfjord. Program for
konferencen kan rekvireres hos ambassaden i Warszawa.
Genbegravelse af kejserinde Dagmar
Baggrundsoplysning om den danskfødte Kejserinde Dagmar og hendes
genbegravelse i Skt. Petersborg.
IT-Sourcing til Rusland
er hidtil blevet overset som muligt marked for IT-sourcing. Det
russiske IT-marked er i de sidste tre år steget med 40 procent, og sidste
for 600 millioner dollar.
EU's forhold til Rusland
EU's forbindelser til Rusland er baseret på en Partnerskabs- og Samarbejdsaftale (PCA), der trådte i kraft i 1997.
Aftalen indeholder bestemmelser om:
I henhold til PCA'en afholdes to årlige topmøder (mellem Ruslands
præsident, Det Europæiske Råds formand, Kommissionens formand og Rådets
generalsekretær). Der er nedsat et Samarbejdsråd (nu kaldet Permanent
Partnerskabs-råd), der mødes årligt på udenrigsministerniveau. Også
fagministre kan mødes i dette råd. Desuden er nedsat en række ekspertudvalg.
Aktuelle emner i samarbejdet mellem EU og Rusland:
Danmark arbejder aktivt i EU for at skabe flere konkrete resultater i
samarbejdet med Rusland. Rusland er en vigtig partner i opbygningen af det
internationale samfund, både globalt og i Danmarks nærområder. Danmark
prioriterer derfor samarbejdet med Rusland indenfor EU højt.
Moscow condemned Nazi-Soviet deal long ago
President Vladimir Putin, responding to growing calls for Russia to renounce
the secret Soviet-Nazi pact that consigned the Baltic republics to Soviet rule,
said Moscow condemned the deal long ago. In a German TV interview published
Friday by the Kremlin press service, Putin said that the Soviet-era legislature,
the Supreme Soviet, had issued a resolution in 1989 that criticized the 1939
Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact as "a personal decision by (Soviet leader Josef)
Stalin that contradicted the interests of the Soviet people."
Putin state-of-nation address
Russian President Vladimir Putin has identified three main tasks to be addressed in developing the Russian state - the strengthening of the political system and legality to prevent a gap between the authorities and society, consolidation of the federation, and liberalization of the economic space. Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the terrorist threat to Russia as very serious. "Over the past few years a great deal has been done in the struggle with terrorism, but the threat remains very serious, and we continue to get very bad blows," he said in his annual message to the Federal Assembly. Russian President Vladimir Putin has described the terrorist threat to Russia as very serious. "Over the past few years a great deal has been done in the struggle with terrorism, but the threat remains very serious, and we continue to get very bad blows," he said in his annual message to the Federal Assembly. Putin confirmed that Russia was interested in a heavy influx of foreign investments. "However, in practice there have emerged obstructions, which, some say are required by national security." The president pointed to the need for creating a clear system of relations between the Russian state and private investors. "The spheres of the economy where the presence of the state is important must be identified clearly," Putin said. He referred to such areas as the development of strategic natural resources and infrastructure projects. "There must be criteria of foreign capital's participation in these programs. As we retain control of a number of sectors of the economy, we must create favorable conditions for investors. That must be formalized at the legal level." Putin believes the state is obliged to protect its interests. "Time is ripe for naming those branches of the economy where advantages must be created for the national capital including state capital, Putin said. He warned that the corrupt part of bureaucracy had learned the technique of using Russia's wealth to its own selfish interests. "The political and corporate bureaucracies behave no better than the government bureaucracy. I must warn them that ceding power to a corrupt bureaucracy is not part of our plans." Læs mere...tilmeld her!
Joint Interview with Putin and Schroeder
QUESTION: Mr President, Mr Chancellor, World War II ended sixty years ago.
Your fathers both fought in this war, one for Hitler’s Germany, the other in Stalin’s army. Mr Chancellor, your father was killed, and your father, Mr President, was seriously wounded. What do you feel on a personal level, a human level, when you think back to those dark days today, as representatives of once-hostile nations?
PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: First of all, I cannot agree with equating Stalin with Hitler. Yes, Stalin was certainly a tyrant and many call him a criminal, but he was not a Nazi. It was not the Soviet forces who crossed the German border on June 22, 1941, but the contrary. That is the first thing we should not forget. Personally, I have never seen the Germans as a hostile nation. I think in general that Russians of my generation, people who did not live through the war themselves, have a different perception of Germany than that of our fathers and grandfathers. Of course, our generation is also a part of this past. I felt this very acutely, for example, when I first learned that the Federal Chancellor’s father was killed on the Eastern Front. I felt this on a very emotional level and it was then that I realised that these tragic events are really not so far removed from us. This is why we must do everything we can to ensure that nothing of this sort ever happens again in the history of our peoples, the history of Europe and the history of the entire world.
FEDERAL CHANCELLOR GERHARD SCHROEDER: It is still a miracle to me that former sworn enemies and opponents in war are today friends and partners who live together as good neighbours. The generation of my fathers and grandfathers could surely not have imagined such a thing. I was only one year old when the war ended and so I don’t have any personal memories and impressions of that time. I learned about the horrors of World War II, the atrocities committed in the concentration camps and the Nazis’ crimes only later in school, from books and from the stories of people who witnessed those events. Germany provoked and started one of the most terrible wars in the history of humanity. Even if our generation is not personally to blame for this we nonetheless still bear responsibility for every period of our history. As we understand it, this means that our primary task is to build a peaceful future for our country as part of a united Europe. I see the opportunity to take part in this construction as both a challenge and a duty. The memory of the war and of national socialism has become a part of our national identity. Preserving this memory is our moral duty, a duty that we will always have. This is why we, the representatives of democratic Germany, will never give injustice and violence, racism and xenophobia a chance to take root again.
QUESTION: Mr President, your brother died during the siege of Leningrad. Did you hate the Germans for this?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: I know that this caused my parents much suffering and they never forgot it, but there was never hatred towards the Germans in my family for this, strange as it may sound. My parents always said that it was not the people who were guilty, not the ordinary soldiers sent to war by the regime in power. It is not the people who carry the blame, but the ideology, in this terrible case, the ideology of national socialism. My mother told me a story about my grandfather, who fought during the First World War. Troops on the opposing sides took up positions in trenches within sight of each other. Austrian soldiers had taken up position on the other side of the section where my grandfather was. My grandfather shot one of the Austrians and badly wounded him. The Austrian was lying there in a pool of his own blood and no one was making any moves to come and help him. My Grandfather then climbed up out of the trench, went over to him and bandaged his wound. They embraced each other before parting.
QUESTION: Mr Chancellor, the war took your father from you before you were even able to see him. Did this loss affect your political outlook in any way?
GERHARD SCHROEDER: No. I learned of my father’s fate just a few years ago and then only by chance. But it was one of the most emotional and unforgettable moments of my life when I stood at his grave in Romania. To be honest, the poverty we grew up in had more of an impact on my political outlook. My mother had to bring me up, along with her other children, in the very difficult conditions of the post-war years. The experience of those times had a direct impact on my political views. The ideas of equality of opportunities and justice, prosperity for all and solidarity have had special significance for me ever since those days. I believe, for example, that all young people should have the chance to receive a school and professional education that will enable them to realise their talents and abilities. The social background they come from and what their parents earn should not be the deciding factors in this. Only the talents and abilities of each individual should count; only they should decide prospects for education and a future career.
QUESTION: What did your parents tell you about their personal experience during World War II? How did your family greet the end of the war?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: My parents were reluctant to talk about those years. They were very difficult memories for them. They usually talked about the war only when friends and acquaintances came to our home. I was born in 1952. My parents never told me about how they met the end of the war, about May 8 and May 9 1945. For them at that time it marked the end of an unimaginably difficult period in their lives. My father was wounded and was in hospital in Leningrad when the city was still besieged by the Nazi forces. At one point he came home to look for my mother and arrived right at the moment when the so-called “burial teams” were about to put her with the corpses and take her to the cemetery. But she was still alive and my father had to pull her out from under this mountain of corpses. She survived only because he gave her the rations that he was entitled to as someone who was wounded and recovering in hospital.
GERHARD SCHROEDER: I was born in 1944, so I don’t have any memories of the last year of the war. I think the situation in our family was similar to that of many other families: during the first years after the war people did not talk much about what happened before 1945. In our family, in any case, it was rare to hear about what happened during those years. My father was killed in the war, after all, and my mother was totally occupied with getting enough food for her children. She worked long and hard and was busy sorting out day-to-day problems. She simply did not have time for telling us stories and recalling the past. As the oldest son, I had to start working myself and help my mother from quite a young age.
QUESTION: Mr Chancellor, you were born in 1944. What image did you have of Russia as a young man?
GERHARD SCHROEDER: What I learned about Russia at school was enough only to provide a partial picture of this country. But there was always something that struck me about Russia. The size of this huge country that stretched all the way across two continents, from Europe to the very edge of Asia, always made an impression on me. For me, Russia was a great political power whose wise rulers and tsars had helped to decide European history. Then it was a country ruled by the communist party, that declared it was putting into practice the ideas of Marx and Engels. In the 1950s, of course, there was the image of Russia as an enemy, and there was an anti-communist sentiment that had a strong influence on the political climate in Germany. I have learned a lot since then about Russia, its history, culture, contribution to European culture, the patriotism and deep religious feelings of its people. What has become deeply rooted in my consciousness is the image of a vast country with a great diversity of peoples and languages and immense natural resources. The question always arises of its own accord: how do you manage such a huge country and preserve its integrity? I wouldn’t envy anyone who has to resolve such a mammoth undertaking. That is why I feel such respect for President Putin.
QUESTION: Did the Russians arrive in Germany as liberators?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: That the Soviet troops liberated Germany from national socialism is a historical fact. Of course, German civilians suffered during the war, but that is not the fault of the Soviet Union or the Red Army. It was not the Soviet Union that began this war. In general, our Western allies also did not distinguish themselves at that time for their humanity. I still do not understand why Dresden had to be so completely destroyed. There was absolutely no need to do this from a military point of view. Both Soviet troops and the Western allied troops remained in Germany as an occupying force after the war. Still - and the German people know that now all Soviet troops have long since been withdrawn from the country.
GERHARD SCHROEDER: Russia, together with the allied forces, liberated Germany and Europe from Nazi tyranny. The Russian people paid a huge price for this, paid in its own blood. In no other country in Europe are as many Russian soldiers buried as in Germany. But when we remember May 8 and 9, we should also not forget that for many people in Germany and in other countries, the end of the war brought not just liberation but also marked the beginning of exile, the sad lot of refugees and a new loss of freedom.
QUESTION: Mr President, Mr Chancellor, after all the suffering they went through, how did our peoples manage to overcome this mutual hatred?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Even during the most difficult moments in the war the Soviet leadership called on the people not to identify all Germans with the Nazis: “Hitlers will come and go but the German people remains”. This was not just propaganda. This was the conviction shared by the overwhelming majority of Soviet citizens. My parents also shared with me precisely this view.
The German people became, in many ways, a victim of the political irresponsibility of the leadership of that time. The people were poisoned with Nazi ideology and pulled into a bloody massacre. This irresponsible military adventure became a personal tragedy for millions of ordinary Germans.
But you are right: it was not at all easy to overcome the hatred and harshness that emerged as a result of the Nazi aggression and took root in the occupied territories. It required time and considerable effort by politicians and millions of people in Germany and in our country to return the feelings of respect and mutual liking that have existed between our peoples for centuries.
I have every ground for saying that the Soviet people, despite all they went through, were able to forgive. This really was a reconciliation in people’s souls. While in some other countries, as you know well, many people have still not reached this point of reconciliation.
GERHARD SCHROEDER: When the Second World War ended, one thing was clear to both Russians and Germans and that was that a new war and new violence should never happen again. Many people, in difficult conditions, helped to bring about rapprochement and reconciliation between Russia and Germany after 1945. Willy Brandt’s policy of detente and search for a balance of interests with the Soviet Union were infused with the spirit of reconciliation. This helped build up trust that the differences between the two systems did not obstruct. The seeds sown by Willy Brandt and many others began to blossom. Confrontation and the Cold War increasingly gave way to cooperation and dialogue, and this all ultimately led to the changes of 1989-1990. But, given the horrors of the war, the reconciliation between Russia and Germany remains a political miracle.
QUESTION: Mr President, have you personally forgiven the Germans?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: As I said, for me personally, as for most people of my age, this question sounds a little odd and does not have the emotional charge that it carries for the older generation. I did not personally live through the horrors of war, after all. Our peoples, Russians and Germans, have lived through many dramatic events in our history. I am sure that we have become wiser and have learned to value human life, freedom and good relations with our neighbours more highly. The historic reconciliation between Germans and Russians is an objective fact.
QUESTION: Mr President, what does Stalin mean to you?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Stalin and his era are an integral part of my country’s complicated and sometimes contradictory history. We need to know this history and remember its lessons. One of these lessons is clear: dictatorship and repression of freedom is a dead-end road for the state, for society. Uncontrolled personal power inevitably creates a free hand for committing crimes. There were enough crimes committed during the Stalin years political repression, the deportation of entire peoples. This calls for the principled attitude.
QUESTION: Who are the heroes of World War II for you?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: The real heroes of World War II for me are everyone who fought against the Nazi regime. The soldiers of the Red Army, the allied soldiers, the prisoners of war and inmates of the concentration camps, the people who toiled without rest in the rear they are all heroes. So, of course, are the anti-fascists, the Germans of various political convictions who fought against Hitler’s tyranny. They are true German patriots, they fought against Hitler’s regime and for the honour of the German people.
GERHARD SCHROEDER: I must admit that it is hard for me to talk about heroes in this war that killed so many millions and brought so much destruction, poverty and suffering. Of course, there were many courageous soldiers and there were brilliant strategists among the officers and commanders. But as I see it, the defining moment in heroism is an individual’s behaviour, a clear moral stand. Those who showed their humanity in the face of war and national-socialist terror were brave and heroic, those who hid Jews, who saved the lives of others and who showed courage as individuals in the midst of an inhuman system and respected the human dignity of others. Berlin district head Krutzfeld, for example, or Pastor Polchow. The first of them, giving a liberal interpretation to orders, opposed the hordes of SS men during the Kristallnacht pogroms in 1938. Attempts were made later to make him answer for this but nothing happened to him in the end. The second used all sorts of ruses to save many people from the Gestapo’s persecution. People such as they did not, perhaps, perform great feats, but they showed us that it is possible to remain human even in a dictatorship. I admire these “everyday heroes’.
QUESTION: Mr President, you got to know Germany after World War II on the eastern side of the “Iron Curtain”. What influence did this encounter with the Germans have on you?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: All my encounters were with sincere, decent and reliable people. If any of them made mistakes in any way, they were sincere mistakes. What was amazing for me politically was that society and the state organisation were as if frozen in the 1950s-60s. Even for me, who had come from the Soviet Union, it was clear that such a system was not viable. But there were some things that bound me to Germany on a human, emotional level. My daughter was born there and her place of birth in all her documents is given as Dresden.
QUESTION: Was the division of Germany a just punishment for unleashing World War II?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: The division of Germany into occupied zones was above all the result of Germany’s military defeat. The allies sought at that time to free Germany from the burden of Nazism, restore civilian life and elect a democratic government within as short as possible a period of time. I want to remind you that at all the conferences among the allies, including at Yalta and Potsdam, the Soviet leadership followed a consistent line in favour of preserving Germany’s integrity and unity. But some of our allies, unfortunately, took quite the opposite line. The subsequent division of Germany into two separate states took place along the lines of military, political and ideological confrontation of interests at the height of the Cold War. Of course, this was a great tragedy for the German people, but we cannot call it Germany’s punishment for starting the Second World War. It is characteristic that once the confrontation between the superpowers, the Soviet Union and the United States, came to an end, the ground was swiftly laid for peaceful reunification of Germany. The positive role played by our country in this process is well known.
GERHARD SCHROEDER: The division of Germany during the Cold War years is, ultimately, the result of Hitler’s criminal policies and to call it a just punishment in this case would not be right.
QUESTION: You have close and friendly relations. Do you still touch upon the bitter experience of World War II during your conversations?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Of course. This, after all, is the greatest tragedy not only of the twentieth century but of all world history, and our peoples were at its centre. It is our duty to know and remember the lessons of the war. You are right in saying that Gerhard Schroeder and I do have a real friendship. I think it is well known that we think alike on many issues. We see it as our common duty to help overcome the negative past in Russian-German relations and to heal the wounds caused by the war. We both believe that the lessons of those years should help the international community to unite against the global threats of the twenty-first century and strengthen stability and security in Europe and the world. We also understand well how important it is to join forces in order to combat the activities of extremist organisations that feed on the ideology of national and racial intolerance and that seek to justify the crimes of the Nazis and of their collaborationist stooges. The ideology of such organisations is in many ways similar to the inhuman ideology of terrorists who reject the values of democracy, human life itself, civil rights and liberties, and use primitive nationalism and xenophobia in their propaganda. This is why we consider the development of international humanitarian cooperation to be one of our biggest priorities. Learning about the culture and human legacy of other countries and peoples, joint projects in education and science and youth exchanges are all ways of bringing people closer together, helping us to understand each other better and enriching us spiritually. Overall, Russian-German relations definitely have an agenda addressed to the future and are not just pragmatic but, above all, are constructive in nature.
GERHARD SCHROEDER: Of course, we talk about all aspects of relations between our two countries, including the black pages. Only those who really know history can avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. There can be no place for all that has brought such immeasurable suffering to millions of people totalitarian ideology, nationalism, the thirst for domination and the subjugation by one people of its neighbours. The creation of the European Union is one answer to these mistakes of the past. A strategic partnership with Russia is a second answer, and there can be no alternative either to the one or to the other.
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EU og Rusland - Fælles interesser
Rusland er ikke let at blive klog på.
Vi hører chefen for BP i Rusland klage over det usikre forretningsklima. Der tales om kapitalflugt og mangel på retssikkerhed. Mange rejser tvivl om, hvorvidt Rusland er på rette vej.
Samtidig har store tyske virksomheder netop besluttet at engagere sig endnu mere i Rusland. Aviserne taler om, at bilproducenter står i kø for at lave fabrikker i Rusland.
På rådsmødet den 25. april forberedte vi topmødet med præsident Putin den 10. maj. På bordet ligger en handlingsplan for samarbejde over et bredt felt omfattende økonomi, handel, miljø, videnskab og uddannelse.
EU og Rusland har store fælles interesser. Vi skal udnytte dem bedre.
Ruslands interesse i samarbejde med EU er stort. Præsident Putin har formuleret ambitiøse mål for økonomisk vækst og modernisering.
Målene kan ikke opnås i isolation, men vil kræve en åben økonomi og vidtgående integration af Rusland i international økonomi, først og fremmest i europæisk økonomi.
Præsident Putin talte i forrige uge på messen i Hannover om forudsigeligt erhvervsklima, om små og mellemstore virksomheder, om konkurrence og om videnskab i en moderne industri- og serviceøkonomi.
EU har store muligheder for at give udviklingen af russisk økonomi et afgørende skub i den retning, som Putin har udstukket.
Ikke mindst landene omkring Østersøen har interesse i, at visionen realiseres. Det værste scenario for os er et ustabilt og fattigt Rusland ved Østersøens breder. Vi ønsker en partner med fungerende demokrati og en fremgangsrig moderne økonomi.
Dialog om energi
EU og Rusland har derfor store gensidige interesser i energisektoren. Vi fører en "energidialog" herom. Målet er at skabe forsyningssikkerhed og stabile energimarkeder på konkurrencevilkår.
EU stiller i udsigt, at Rusland kan få adgang til det indre marked med en befolkning tre gange større end Ruslands og med langt større købekraft.
Det vil være et bidrag til omlægning af russisk økonomi bort fra ensidig afhængighed af energi og råvarer.
Dette er et højt prioriteret russisk mål, der kræver en bedre kommerciel udnyttelse af Ruslands videnskabelige potentiale. Handlingsplanen lægger derfor op til russisk deltagelse i EU''s videnskabelige programmer.
Integration mellem EU og Rusland må ske på grundlag af fælles værdier. Det er for Danmark et kardinalpunkt, at der må være en forståelse af og respekt for europæiske værdier som menneskerettigheder og demokratiske principper.
Retsstatsprincipper er forudsætningen både for udvikling af samfundet og for økonomien. Samarbejdet kan kun blomstre på dette grundlag.
Ukraine på vej mod højstatus blandt
Ukraine - ”En østeuropæisk tiger”
Den Danske Bank har kaldt Ukraine for en østeuropæisk tiger. Jeg vil vælge at kalde landet for en ”BRIC-minor”. Ukraine bliver aldrig så betydende for danske eksportører som Polen, men der er god grund til at tro på, at Ukraine inden for en 10 års periode vil have samme betydning, rent markedsmæssigt, for Danmark, som Rusland har. Hvis dette er korrekt skal samhandlen naturligvis opleve et veritabelt boom, men grundlaget for dette er faktisk til stede.
I praksis er det simple ting der bestemmer betydningen af et eksportmarked. Vigtige faktorer er ofte forhold som størrelse, købekraft og nærhed - logistikmæssigt og kulturelt. Simple forhold, der kan forklare tyngden af England, Sverige og Tyskland i den danske samhandel, og som også kan forklare at Frankrig, set i forhold til Tyskland, betyder mindre for de fleste danske virksomheder. Frankrig er mindre end Tyskland, længere væk og kulturelt ganske anderledes. Polen vil med sin størrelse, sin nærhed og sin relative velfærd og forventede økonomiske vækst, inden for rammerne af EU, vokse i betydning som marked for Danmark. Ifølge prognoser fra Jyske Bank vil Polen i 2020 blive en af Danmarks 10 største eksportmarkeder.
Rusland - ”De 10 salgsøers land”
Ruslands tiltrækning ligger primært i befolkningsstørrelsen. Med knap 150 mil. mennesker er landet det største ”Europæiske” land, bereiget med enorme naturrigdomme. Væksten er høj og Putins regering har som erklæret mål at fordoble BNP i forhold til 2000 inden 2010. Problemet med Rusland er, at det netop ikke er et ”helt land” i markedsmæssig forstand. Rusland består i eksportørens objektiv af flere øer, som skal bearbejdes på hver sin måde. Disse salgsøer er de 10 byer i Rusland, der har over 1. million mennesker og det er disse øer, med Moskva og Skt. Petersborg i spidsen, der er grundlaget for salget til landet. 50% af alle danske virksomheder i Rusland, er placeret i Moskva, 30% i Skt. Petersborg - kun 20% er placeret i provinsen. Danske virksomheders salg i Rusland er derfor meget ”ø-baseret” og man kan næppe tale om eksport til landet som sådan.
Ukraines købekraft er samlet i byerne
Ukraine er ikke et nærområde, som Polen og endnu ikke så rigt som Rusland, men i forhold til Rusland er Ukraine et meget tætbefolket og kompakt land med en meget høj økonomisk vækst. Selv i ”Det Centrale Distrikt” i Rusland, som arealmæssigt er på størrelse med Ukraine, og hvor Moskva er hovedbyen, er befolkningstætheden mindre end i Ukraine. Ukraine har fem byer med over med over 1 mil. mennesker - alle vest for Moskva. I disse fem byer alene lever der flere mennesker end i hele Baltikum tilsammen. Størrelsen, væksten, den relative nærhed og kompaktheden er faktorer der tilsammen gør Ukraine ekstra interessant. Dertil kommer at man forventer at Ukraine nu står overfor et økonomisk boom, som indtil nu har forbigået landet, men som Polen og Rusland har oplevet.
Samhandlens perioder - Det er Ukraines tur til et boom
Journalist Morten Hansted har skrevet en meget munter bog ”Rubler og Skrupler”, som giver et godt billede af rammebetingelserne og ændringerne i disse over tid i Rusland. Disse betragtninger genbruges i Berlingske Nyhedsmagasin som for nylig lavede en periodeinddeling på samhandlen med Rusland. En inddeling som med lethed kan anvendes på de øvrige Østlande. De enkelte Østlande har på grund af deres uheldige fortid haft en ”unaturlig” udviklingsvej og deres markeder har derfor gennemløbet nogle typiske transitionsfaser mod markedsøkonomi. Pionerperiode, boomperioden, og det lange seje træk er perioder der går igen på tværs af østlandene. Hver periode har stillet sine krav til eksportørerne og produkterne. De kvalifikationer der skabte succes i boomperioden er bestemt ikke de samme som vil skabe succes i ”det lange seje træk”. Forberedelse, systematik, struktur, præcision, og vedholdenhed vil fremover være afgørende for succes på markederne - meget tilsvarende succesfaktorerne i Tyskland og England. For Polen, Rusland og Ukraine kan perioderne opstilles på følgende måde: Af de tre lande har Ukraine haft en atypisk udvikling, men det interessant er at man forventer at 2005 vil blive startskuddet til Ukraines boomtid. Perioden bliver formentlig kort og vil hurtigt blive afløst af ”det lange seje træk”, men i den korte periode vil der komme til at ske store ændringer og det vil være en periode med store udfordringer og muligheder for danske virksomheder.
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